Trump to decide soon on renewed Iran strikes

After his first National Security Council meeting on Iran since the 3 November midterm elections, held on 5 November, US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that a decision on whether to resume major strikes against Iran would come soon. "Now we will make a decision," he said. "You'll know soon enough." No order for new strikes has been issued, and no decision has been announced.

The three options on the table

Trump is weighing three paths. The first is renewed airstrikes aimed at ensuring Iran's nuclear programme cannot be rebuilt. The second is continued economic pressure: keeping the sanctions and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in place. The third is a negotiated settlement, which would require major concessions from Iran.

Trump framed the choice around the nuclear question. "I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I'll have to," he said. Before the midterms he had ruled out further major strikes; that has now changed.

What Qatar has put on the table

Qatar is mediating a draft two-day framework. On day one, the US would lift its naval blockade and release some frozen Iranian funds, while Iran would invite IAEA inspectors to damaged nuclear sites. On day two, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks would resume. Neither side has indicated that it accepts the plan.

Iran has also sent the US a nuclear proposal through Qatar, with seven conditions including sanctions relief before talks, and the US is reviewing it. Iran's security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Iran would neither reopen the strait nor negotiate until all seven are met. Trump called Qatar's Emir on 6 November about the mediation.

What it means for oil prices

About a fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell about 9 percent on Wednesday to around $94 a barrel on hopes of de-escalation, then rose about 1.6 percent to $99.86 on Friday after fresh tanker attacks in the Gulf. For readers in India, the channel is fuel prices, which track that benchmark.

What happens next

Three dates frame the decision. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group reaches the region only in mid-November. US officials have noted that 9 November is a new moon, a condition favourable for night operations, though no strike date has been set. And the new Democratic-controlled Congress takes its seats on 3 January 2027. Until Trump speaks again, the picture stays narrow: preparations are being finalised, a proposal is on the table, and no order has been given.

📷 Photo credit: Joyce N. Boghosian, The White House (public domain), via Wikimedia Commons