2,800 troops rehearse Ukraine deployment in Poland

A rehearsal 100 kilometres from Ukraine's border

In southeast Poland, around 100 kilometres west of the Ukrainian border, troops from 11 nations will spend two weeks practising something no Western force has yet done: moving, protecting and supplying a multinational force that could one day operate inside Ukraine. The exercise takes place in Poland, not in Ukraine, and it is a rehearsal for a peace that has not yet arrived.

What was announced on 3 November

The UK and French governments announced on 3 November that they will jointly lead Exercise Koalicja, the first major exercise run by the Multinational Force-Ukraine (MNF-U). The exercise runs from 9 to 22 November around the town of Nowa Dęba in southeast Poland. Some 2,800 troops will take part on land, in the air and at sea. The UK is contributing 300 troops, and RAF Typhoons will fly sorties overhead, practising how they would reassure commercial air travel once Ukraine's skies reopen. Turkey will lead the maritime side from Istanbul, testing arrangements for clearing mines so commercial shipping can return to Ukraine's ports. The force is co-led by British Lieutenant General Tom Bateman and French General Armel Dirou. UK Defence Minister Wes Streeting said: "This isn't a hypothetical plan, it's a real force, ready to help Ukraine once the fighting stops."

What the force would do, and what it would not

The MNF-U is the military arm of the Coalition of the Willing, the group of nations that has pledged strengthened military, economic and diplomatic support to Ukraine. Its stated aims are to support the Ukrainian armed forces, help keep Ukrainian skies and the Black Sea safe for economic activity, and help rebuild Ukraine's forces after the fighting ends. Just as important is what officials say it would not do.

The force would	The force would not
Support and help regenerate Ukraine's armed forces	Carry out offensive operations
Help keep Ukrainian skies and seas safe for trade	Serve on the front line
Deploy only once fighting has ended	Carry out peacekeeping or ceasefire-monitoring duties
Operate outside NATO command, with little US involvement	Operate under NATO command

Lt Gen Bateman has stressed that the force is not a peacekeeping or ceasefire-monitoring mission, and that its purpose is reassurance and support for Ukraine's armed forces.

The numbers that do not line up

Readers following this story will meet three different counts, so they are worth stating plainly. The joint announcement puts the total at 2,800 troops from 11 nations: Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the UK. One account of the announcement counts only the 10 nations taking part in the land exercise in Poland, with Turkey's maritime role from Istanbul counted separately, which still adds up to 11 in total. Another account opens by saying nearly 3,000 personnel from 12 nations, then gives the same 2,800 figure and the same 11-nation list in its own body. This post uses 2,800 troops and 11 nations, the figures two of the three accounts agree on, and treats the "12 nations" and "nearly 3,000" figures as unconfirmed.

Why this exercise, and why now

Until now the reassurance-force idea has been mainly a political commitment: European nations offering long-term security guarantees to Ukraine without putting a combined force through its paces. Koalicja is the first time that commitment gets a physical test, with the exercise designed to check whether troops from different countries can move together, share command and control, and operate as one force. That shift from pledge to rehearsal is the real news here, and it is also why the timing matters. The war is grinding towards its five-year milestone with neither side close to a decisive breakthrough, and Moscow is still showing little appetite for a peace settlement. A force built for the day after the fighting stops therefore has to be ready before that day arrives, or it will not be credible when it is needed.

Glossary

• Multinational Force-Ukraine (MNF-U): the multinational force, led jointly by the UK and France, that would support Ukraine's security after a ceasefire.
• Coalition of the Willing: the group of nations that has pledged strengthened military, economic and diplomatic support to Ukraine; the MNF-U is its military arm.
• Reassurance force: a force meant to reassure Ukraine and deter future aggression, rather than to fight on the front line or police a ceasefire.

What happens next

Exercise Koalicja runs from 9 to 22 November in Poland, with the maritime element run from Istanbul. Watch whether the land, air and sea parts join up as one command, since that is the test the exercise was designed to pass. No date has been announced for any deployment into Ukraine, because none can be set: the force would move only once fighting has ended, and Russia has shown no sign of accepting a ceasefire. Until that changes, Koalicja stays what it is, a rehearsal for a deployment that may still be a long way off.

Further reading

• European force to hold first Ukraine support exercise in Poland
• UK to lead multinational military training exercise to prepare for peace in Ukraine
• Thousands of European troops to rehearse Ukraine deployment in event of peace

📷 Photo credit: Sgt. Luis Garcia, Wikimedia Commons